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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.