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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|