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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test team being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, change is here, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a much more significant change with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, coming around the corner, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.